Iran - the war in the times of social media
Donald Trump's ceasefire is getting shaky, although it continues to hold. Iran has attacked an Emirati port, and there are contradictory reports of attacks on ships. The ceasefire is there, although Americans won. In Lebanon, it only applies in theory: since April, Israel has killed hundreds of people and razed villages to the ground. Donald Trump is indeed a miraclous man: he started a war everyone won, and then he ended it, although it continues.
Both Americans and Iranians say theirs is on top: Americans accomplished all their goals, while the Iranian regime survived, and could've gotten even more hardened. Despite the death of some very high level officials, the Islamic Republic didn't fall, and was not toppled through popular revolt. In the meantime, it was not the mythical nuclear weapon to be a special whip to use on Americans, but the Strait of Hormuz. Fatih Birol, the head of International Energy Agency summed it up perfectly:
I still cannot understand that the world was so blind-sided, that the global economy can be held hostage to a 50km strait
The Powerpuff
It's worth remembering the US-Israeli aggression against Iran makes for a perfect proof for Tehran that they need a nuclear weapon to survive. The regime isn't blind to what's been happening in the region in the last 20 years. Muammar Ghaddafi gave up his nuclear ambitions in 2003. He was toppled eight years later, and hid fruitlessly in a sewage in a Libyan backwater. He eventually died at the hand of the rebels supported by NATO. Saddam Hussein was also accused to have tried getting a nuclear weapon and WMDs. Americans toppled him in 2003.
Mojtaba who?
The American success may be summed up so: they've spent billions of dollars to have Ayatollah Khomenei replaced with Ayatollah Khomenei. The position of the Supreme Leader has been filled by Ali Khomenei's son, Mojtaba. Rumours say that he was seriously wounded, and hasn't been seen in public yet. His authority and influence thus remains unclear. It took years for his father to built his own authority. The junior was not an obvious choice himself, but rather a relatively anonymous person within the Republic's machinery. He may not even have been a particularly popular choice with his own father, who had possibly wanted to avoid hereditary rule. That may have been too brazen given the Islamic Republic overthrew the authoritarian Pahlavi dynasty.
His absence in the public sphere has led to a wide array of speculation. At the one hand, his is a promotion in a peculiar time of war, which hinders Khomenei's ability to establish authority purely on his own terms. At the other, rumors regarding his health post the airstrike that killed his father put into question whether he is able to exercise any authority at all.
Word of the Year: decentralisation
The Supreme Leader's shaky position doesn't spell the end of the Islamic Republic. The system has been long undergoing preparation for just such events. The Iranian establishment decided to go for a deep-going decentralisation. The mosaic defense strategy aims to enable military units to work independently in the absense of their commanders and leaders who were killed by Americans and Israelis. Everybody has a deputy.
So, who to negotiate with? It's a questions both sides are (or should be) asking. The Iranians questions whether Team Flip and Flap, officially Kushner and Witkoff, are in any authority to decide anything, in the light of their phoning Trump about 12 times during the first round of talks (while Don himself was watching MMA). Similar voices come from Washington regarding internal struggles in Tehran.
Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff at the White House, Sept. 29, 2025, REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE
It's an open secret that two factions exist in Tehran. One is more open to talks, and the other is much more beligerent, willing to continue the war. The latter, conservative option seems to be gaining steam. Media reports are getting increasingly hardened, and there's a view of the negotiations as a sign of weakness. The hardliners say that Iran was bombed each time it sat to negotiate with the US. Indeed, until February this year, both countries took part in talks mediated by Oman. That follows a similar pattern from last year - the 12-day war took place despite the negotiations right before it.
One person to take the initiative in the talks with Iran's enemies has been Mohamad-Bagheri Ghalibaf, a former commander in IRGC (a conservative power), and the incumbent speaker of parliament, who is said to be close to Mujtaba. Although it could've seemed that negotioations would fall within the prerogatives of diplomats, so the Foreign Office and the Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Aragchi, it's Ghalibaf himself who plays the leading role. At the same time, President Mahmoud Pezeshkian has remained in the shadows, seemingly choosing to swim with the current and focus on the day-to-day administration.
And what are you going to do now?
It's hard to say exactly where the events will go. The Lebanon front is a Schroedinger's ceasefire - it's in effect and Israel is making war at the same time, razing whole villages to the ground and displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Tel Aviv has killed over 100 people since the beginning of May. For its part, Hezbollah continues its own attacks. Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and the US is blocking Iran. First, JD Vance is going to Pakistan to negotiate, then it's Flip and Flap to fly, and then nobody because Iran knows nothing of any continuation of talks. In the end, Iranians show up in Islamabad, but only to give their offer. In the meantime, Trump is wagging his finger and trying to walk on water. And just the Kremlin's celebrating because fuel's getting expensive and JD Vance hasn't gone there yet.
Donald Trump's presidency is a product and sign of the times of social media and the attention economy. The last two months have been characterised by a deluge of noise and destruction only to achieve nothing - or actually make matters worse. At the same time, it's another sign of America being fascist and irrational. It's a similar case with the tail that's wagging the dog - Israel. The Jewish state's done away with all pretenses in marking its own expansiveness; even less so when it's coming to marking its spot as the new apartheid-era South Africa. The nationalistic ego and very expensive military toys are a very dangerous mix, which may blow up in all our faces.
It is but a mistake to portray the Islamic Republic as a dove and a pillar of stability and democracy. It's the same regime that murdered at least a few thousand peaceful protesters in early 2026. It's still sentecing to death the people it arrested for taking part in the protests. A pair of British tourists were sentenced to a decade in prison after having travelled the country on bikes - that apparently makes you a spy.
Neither side will be swift to give up. Tehran's become more hardened and less open to just any talks. The fact that the regime still stands on its own two legs, despite the overwhelming American firepower and Trump's promises of annihilation, gives the regime additional self-confidence.
And when it comes to Trump - he's still Trump, and his acolytes ever so blind as before. That may be all the gold in the White House at work. They can't see that a war began to entertain the masses to cover up the peadophilia may not be finished with a Facebook post.