Iran's Schrödinger's pilots in Qatar
Tehran is alleging Doha is illegaly holding four pilots who aircrafts were shot down over Qatar in early March. Qatar is disputing the accusations, saying it tried contacting Iran from the start.
The Islamic Republic's air raid took place on 2nd March, and its target was al-Udeid, America's largest military base in the region. Upon their violating the Qatari airspace, as well as failed attempts at contact, the country shot down two machines. Local search and rescue produced remains of one pilot.
The Ayatollahs had confirmed death of a pilot, fate of the others remaining unknown. Now, Iran is saying the crew of both aircrafts have survived, and they're kept away from the world by the Qatari authorities. Tehran has made a point of stressing that Doha isn't allowing them any contact with the outside world, including family and diplomatic aid. Qatar responded that it had contacted the Islamic Republic to return the remains of the pilot it found. It claims it had been left unanswered.
What led Iran to make the accusation is unclear. Doha, along with Oman and Pakistan, have been mediating between Tehran and Washington. Their aim has been a return to the short-lived memorandum of understanding that both parties signed in June. Media report those talks have been going in a positive direction.
The Unruly Strait
We're still far away from any actual ending of hostilities and opening of the Strait of Hormuz, especially because both sides are so stubbornly entrenched in their positions. We all know Trump for who he is. The trap he set upon himself when he started the war is, however, becoming increasingly thorny - the more painful, the closer we get to the mid-term elections. The economic costs have been hitting American wallets with an increasingly tighter fist.
And in controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has found a neat sword of Damocles. Tehran is seeking certain concessions, including the cancellation of sanctions, war reparations, and unfreezing assets held in the West. Trump just wants to show he won because, in his narcissistic and egotistic delusions, he hates losers. His brain could simply short-circuit otherwise.
But seeing the effects it's welding, the Islamic Republic may not be so quick to give the sword up. Talks between Iran and Oman have been taking place, in which both parties have been discussing dividing control of the Strait. In the agreement, Tehran would control the traffic flowing in the Persian Gulf, while Muscat the ships sailing out onto the Arabian Sea. That's not as much opening the waterway, as it is two neighbours agreeing on the rules of engagement when it does open. Iranian authorities qualify allowing traffic on the behaviour of Washington and namely whether it concedes to their demands.