Middle East pulls a NATO
Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia made a defence pact, the basis of which sounds awfully familiar: an attack on one is an attack on all.
The devil's in the details, and those remain unknown, but a closer look complicates the picture: media report the document the trio signed on Friday doesn't require the new allies to support one another in the way we know as members of the NATO. It's more an extra layer of protection made to work as a deterrence.
The layer includes three of the most powerful regional states: Turkey, with its lively defence industry (including drone production), oil-rich and wealthy Saudi Arabia, and nuclearly-armed Pakistan. Much of the armaments Saudi Arabia has come from the US, but Turkey is a good friend to have in the light of doubts regarding America's ammunition stockpiles.
All three countries have reassured the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement is a purely defensive one, and not aimed at any country in particular. But the document was not realised in a vaccum. Six months have passed last week since Israel and the US attacked Iran, and the Islamic Republic has responded with its own attacks on each of the Gulf states.
Not only is the end of war as ephemeral as the humor and mind of Donald Trump, it's began to spread. The Houthi movement, which governs a part of Yemen and has allied with Tehran, began in July a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea. The decision was made after Riyadh's bombardment of an airport to prevent a Houthi delegation from landing. The group was coming back from Ali Khamenei's funeral. Mutual aerial attacks have followed and civilians have suffered.
Iran, for its part, launched rockets on Jordan, and a drone of unknown origin exploded on ships in Damietta, Egipt. In that country, suspisions have landed on Iran, which denies responsibility. Houthi have also attacked Saudi tankers near the port of Yanbu.
The agreement is also a certain signal for Washington that the trust towards it as the guarantor of peace is increasingly shakey. Iran, unable to attack directly on American soil, hits where it can hurt: its neighbours hosting American military infrastructure. It's not a complete rapture from the distant defender, but the sheikhs have understood that a complete dependence on America's whims is not enough to keep the region stable.
How credent are the assurances of allied help remains an open question, as well as the shape any assitance would take. Saudi Arabia signed a similar agreement with Pakistan late last year, but the ally didn't come to aid when Iran attacked. One argument is that Islamabad has had ambitions to become a beacon of diplomacy in the region. An open military intervention in the conflict would undermine its credibility as a neutral player to bridge enemies' differences. Pakistan took its mediator role very seriously, hosting American and Iranian negotiators for talks in April.
Saudi Arabia is also more daring. By the end of July, the kingdom entered into an alliance of 14 countries, which came together to defend maritime trade routes. In this case, particular attention has been given to the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait (ar. Gate of Tears). The aim of the Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance is maintaining freedom of navigation - which means the ability for Saudi Arabia to keep exporting its oil.
70% of the Saudi portion of Allah's gift for the Arabs goes now through the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. The reason, naturally, is the Iranians blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The problem is that the Houthis had a similar idea. It's a rebel group ruling in western Yemen - exactly where the country looks over the Red Sea and the Gate of Tears. In 2015, the kingdom launched a war against the rebels, which led to a humanitarian disaster in the poorest Arab country. Both parties singed a ceasefire agreement in 2022, and the conflict had been largely dormant.
I'd not go as far as say that the escalation is motivated from Tehran. The Houthis are indeed their allies, but not their utter puppets. They do have a certain degree of autonomy. Bombing the airport must have caused certain consternation, given that Saudis sent a delegation to the same funeral.